Giving Away Money: 2023 Week 2 Picks Against the Spread To Enhance Your Filthy Lucre

Week One: 4-2
Season: 4-2

Told ya’:

The data really simply do like ‘Bama here. Combined with the trends, history, MTSU’s roster situation, and intangibles, and you could do far worse for a big spread than this one. I’ll take it up through -38.5

Tide by -40.89

CI 99% win, 69.2% cover

Alabama 56 MTSU 14

Final: 56-7

What on Earth?

Quinn Ewers Heisman campaign gets off to a jolly good start; Arch gets some gimmes, one of the nation’s deepest RB rooms tees off, and Food has no answers for the Shorties’ team speed on defense...or anywhere else for that matter.

This is going to be a massacre.

Spoiler: Ewers did not, Arch did not, the running game was pedestrian, Rice moved the ball well (on a curve), and Texas looked very pedestrian.

Welcome to a Week Two of 2023’s Giving Away Money.

We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs. And, after just one week of data, the latter two are going to be far more necessary than usual.

For a third year, we extend our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll in this space. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub.

For current odds, check those out here.

Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.

Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.

Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:

Texas A&M -4 at Miami - While people were going googoo and geegaw over Aggies’ new passing offense, they lost track of the fact that the ground game was just in the 70s in efficiency, and the per-play offensive efficiency was still just 100th. The U’s defense is 6th in drive efficiency. So, really, this one is going to come down to how well Weigel can play on the road, and how well Miami’s offense matches up with the Aggie defense.
Sadly, this number looks to be just about right, and is inside the MOV. A&M -3.76. Skip it.

One We Like:

Jax State +15 at Coastal — The Offense can’t score in a whorehouse, but JSU is the nation’s No. 1 per-play, per-drive, and opponent-adjusted defense in both rushing and passing. They’re damned good, in other words. Chanties may get it done, but this is a lot closer to a TD than three scores.

Take the Cocks (TWSS). CCU -18.27

BTW: DYK this is a battle of chickens! Maybe the first in NCAA history

One We Love:

Liberty -10 vs. NMSU The Flames have forced 5 INTs, and have the horses to make life miserable if the Aggies have to go to the air. Can NMSU shut down the potent Liberty ground game, minimize mistakes, spy Salter, negate those shots that Chadwell loves to take, and still put points on the board on the ground? If Umass and WIU were any indication, no, they can’t.

Liberty -13.23

An Underdog With Bite:

TTU +6.5 vs. Oregon — Despite gacking up a 17-point late lead, the analytics still really like the Raiders. This won’t be an easy game for the Ducks. And, for Nix, he’ll have to play another semi-competent secondary again: we remember what he looked like in the SEC. If TTU can avoid cheap giveaways, they’ll be in striking range here. Always a big if with McGuire’s style. But this is one of the nation’s most underrated tough places to grab a W in. That will be true again Saturday.

Red Raiders +2.67, and a home upset is not out of the realm of possibility.

Photo by Lance King/Getty Images

Ginormous Spread Worth Your Time:

Kent State -37.5 at Arkansas — You know our rule. We’re betting against Kent State every game this year, no matter what the data may say. Take the Hogs. Edit: Good call anyway.

Piggies offense should have a field day: Ark -39.6

Don’t like that one? Here’s a bonus:

FSU -31 vs. Southern Miss — The Noles wideouts are just too damned overpowering here for an Eagles team breaking in a new DC. Alcorn State, this is not. Nor is it 1990: Brett Favre ain’t leading a Giant-Killer this time around. Kind of close, but at -31, it would be. FSU has had letdowns before after big games, but this team feels like it’s built differently.

Let’s trust it. FSU -34.08

Mortal Lock:

Uconn at Ga. State -3 — I really like Mora, but it’s hard to bet against a Sr. QB at home, with an intact system, a good OL and superior athleticism. If the Panthers front seven can hold up, get some stops on the ground, and then force Pagano to go to the air, they’ll win that mismatch. Then GSU can get a needed W at home. Numbers suggest they will, but this is going to be a dog (and cat) fight. Elliot’s home record as a fave is outstanding: 4-2-1. That’s worth putting your neck out for.

Georgia State -6.27

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month. Far cheaper than a divorce attorney when your wife leaves you for being a bad gambler.