Giving Away Money 2022: The December 29th game of the day is...

With the season almost over, I’m winding down the year with something a bit different. Every day, though season’s end, I’m going to give you the best analytical play for that day’s bowl games.

And today, our winner is...

Cheez-It Bowl, Oklahoma +10 vs. FSU

TL; DR — Versus ranked teams, OU has not only been skunked, they’ve been wiped off the board, losing by an average of 25 PPG. And this is perhaps their tallest task of the season, as FSU will field the best DL / QB combo the Sooners have seen to date.

The culprit in those games? A secondary that gets clowned, an offense that turns it over far too often, an inability to generate TOs (just one forced TO vs. three ranked opponents, and an offense that completes just 51.6% of its passes — but at least the running game bogs down.

And while my Mulleted Midsouf Baefriend, Mike Norvell, has talked most of his team into playing in this game (largely to announce that the ‘Noles are back), Brent Venables has had little such luck:

Oklahoma has five starters opting out of the game, including tackles Wanya Morris (NFL) and Anton Harrison (NFL), running back Eric Gray (NFL), receiver Theo Wease (transfer) and defensive lineman Jalen Redmond (NFL). The Sooners also will be without backup linebackers Joseph Wete (transfer) and Clayton Smith (transfer), quarterback Nick Evers (transfer), receiver Trevon West (transfer) and cornerbacks Joshua Eaton (transfer) and Kendall Dennis (transfer).

That is absolutely brutal.

The Dirt Burglars were already staring at prairie-sized gap in both talent and scheme, then they lose what serviceable guys are still on the roster.

The numbers like FSU to cover narrowly. I bet it’s by a wider margin than this:

FSU -11.63

Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Want some more of these? I crank the data every week, for every single game over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.